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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It commonly functions as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who engineered the largest improvement is handed the award. In reality, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or simply the greatest surprise.

However the current field is distinctly different. The pool of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division winners fading and recent strugglers improving collectively. In an normal season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this chaotic and fun season, he's up against multiple other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the projected vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent performance. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of improvising. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to conjure magic from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current isn't a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a given following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff mix of youth and experience, he bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

Still